The bad news is that San Antonio will be ready to play tonight and will be extremely motivated to avenge losing on their home court Saturday night. The Dallas Mavericks will have a difficult task tonight in winning their 2nd road game in a row, plain and simple. The good news is that if Dallas can get up on the Spurs early, there is a favorable chance that they can demoralize this team. I know it sounds strange considering they have won 4 championships in the last 10 years, but I've got news for you: this is not a championship caliber team.
Three Keys to Victory:
1: Josh Howard vs Michael Finley.
Howard allowed Finley to score 19 points the first game of the series. That is nearly 10 points above his season average and also is unacceptable. J-Ho must give Fin respect on the defensive end because (as he showed in game one) he can still drain an uncontested 3 or mid-range shot. On the offensive end Howard must continue to drive to the basket because, frankly, Michael Finley cannot guard Josh Howard. When Josh pulls up and shoots an off balance shot, he is giving Fin an easy out. Overall Josh should win this matchup hands down, although Finley held his ground game one.
2: Dampier must again control the paint.
Damp is turning into a double-double machine! OK maybe not, but he did get a dub dub last game and his presence was clearly established down low. If he can continue to make Tim Duncan work for his baskets without fouling him and keep a lid on Tony Parker under the basket; the Mavericks will win this series. Of course, those are the Spurs two best players and this key is much easier said that done.
3: How is San Antonio going to stop Jose Juan Barrea?
The little man got whatever he wanted Saturday night. He made easy baskets, when he was covered he dished it to the appropriate player for an easy score, and he even gave Tony Parker trouble on the defensive end. Popovich is a master of matchups and I have good feeling Bruce Bowen will have a good amount of time on JJB (If Barrea starts does Bowen?). Jason Terry would like that. I garauntee without Bowen on him JET might have done a bit better than 12 points. Basically they can pick their poison. Bowen is their only reliable perimeter defender so Pop might want to break out the cloning machine, because with the Mavs role players playing this well they are going to be hard to stop. Regardless, San Antonio's interior defense will have to get better if they want to shut down the Mavericks offense or at least not allow 54% shooting.
It will be a difficult game, the Spurs will not go quietly and with a win tonight will even the series 1-1. But the Mavs still have home court.
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