Get ya popcorn ready. One of only 2 teams to beat the Spurs in the playoffs since the start of the millennium (the other is the L.A. Lakers), the Dallas Mavericks begin the difficult task of trying to knock off their hated rival. In order for the Mavericks to succeed in this series, there are a few things that must happen:
Three Keys:
1: Dallas must find a way to contain the paint against the Spurs only driver, Tony Parker.
Parker has absolutely ripped the Mavs this year averaging 31 ppg (up nearly 10 ppg over his 22 point average for the season). Parker will inevitably look for his shot even more with Ginobili out, as he proved the last two times these two teams faced wherein he averaged 38 ppg and took 32 and 25 shots in those two games. His strength is getting to the rim and finishing. Antoine Wright must stay in front of Parker and if he gets by him it's up to Damp (and maybe Hollins?) to make sure these buckets aren't so easy but to also maintain their responsibilities in defending Timmeh Duncan. Jason Kidd must offset some of Parker's scoring by making a few baskets of his own and turning the tables on S.A.'s big men by driving the lane, posting up Mr. Longoria from time to time, and finishing at the basket (yes I'm talking to you Kidd).
2: Josh Howard must play like he has the final 5 games of the season.
Diving for loose balls, fighting for offensive rebounds, scrappy play leading to steals, lockdown type defense and a propensity for getting to the rim - all while having a chronic left ankle injury. J-Ho has shown what so many have said he has lacked at times during last two seasons: Heart. Now its time to continue the trend against a team he has had success against in the past. In two games against the Spurs this year he has averaged 21.5 points and 9.5 boards. In the last game on March 4th in a win he scored 29 points while also grabbing 7 boards and relentlessly attacking the basket in crunch time. If he can show this is no mirage and that he is a fighter, the Mavs have a good shot.
3: Dirk has to be Dirk.
It sounds simple and most of us forget about it (until the Mavs lose so we all blame it on him) but Dirk Nowitzki has to perform like the MVP player that he is in order for the Mavericks to advance. Mavs fans take this guy for granted all year long: 26 ppg, 8.5 boards, 3 assist, 24 straight 20 point or more games (longest in the league this year). Dirk has to do what he hasn't done only once his entire career. Show up. Only vs Golden State two years ago was there a playoff series where Dirk has not played like himself. This is the easy one. Dirk has had success against S.A. in the past and has shown a real tenacity (hatred?) to work hard and get to the rim against this team which elevates his game even higher. If Dirk plays like himself that is the first domino to fall and it makes this series much easier for the Mavs fan to watch.
Tony Parker will get his and Tim Duncan will show that he has been saving up for the playoffs all year, but Dallas will stand its ground. Dirk will play like the MVP player that he is, J-Ho will tough it out on his bum ankle, Kidd will provide the toughness and leadership this team needs, and the bench will severly outperform the Spurs. This will culminate in a 7 game series and the Mavs will get out of the first round for the first time since 2006.
Mavericks Over Spurs 4-3.
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