Nowitzki On The Move?

According to ESPNDallas.com, sources inside the Mavericks organization expect Dirk Nowitzki to opt out of his contract, thus becoming an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

Nowitzki was noncommittal on a return to Dallas after the Game 6 loss to the San Antonio Spurs - that sent the Mavericks home in the first round for the third time in the last four seasons. Hopefully Nowitzki was just understandably frustrated with Dallas' recent slide, especially after the acquisitions of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood at the All-Star break seemed to vault the Mavericks into title-contention.

In recent weeks, both Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson have been optimistic on the chances that Nowitzki will continue his career in a Mavs' uniform.

I'm not so sure.

If Dallas is able to bring in a top-5 free-agent this summer, and I'm talking Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire, then there is a great chance Nowitzki stays. But, in all likelihood, these are merely hopes and dreams for a Mavericks team that has found it easy to win games during the regular season (see 10x50) but have only a Western Conference Championship to show for it.

But if there were an off-season where the Mavericks have all the tools to compete for just about anybody on the open market, this is it. One of the deepest teams in the league, Dallas has the ability to offer significant pieces in any sign-and-trade attempt for a true superstar to go along with Nowitzki.

Unlike the New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, and the New Jersey Nets, who have tons of money to throw at the class of 2010 free-agents, Dallas has immediate money-saving and talented pieces at it's disposal to entice one or even two elite-level players through sign-and-trades.

Erick Dampier's non-guaranteed $13 million contract could lure a team into taking immediate savings for a player they could lose for nothing. Caron Butler, who has one year left on the five-year extension he signed with the Washington Wizards in 2005, can not only supply a team with a talented swing-man, but also give that team flexibility in that he has a one year tryout and then they can do what they want with him. These two can be split up into two separate deals along with a J.J. Barea (who has one year left at less than $2 million), DeShawn Stevenson (player option/one year left), Eddie Najera (see Stevenson) or Rodrigue Beaubois who has shown flashes of being an elite-level player himself.

Although, if you want James or Wade who are the cream of the crop, it's going to take something a bit more. I would suggest, as an amateur GM, offering Dampier, Butler, Beaubois, and two first round picks for either of these two players straight up. Make the mechanics and dollars work however they need to (by taking on bad contracts, providing monetary gain in the deal, etc) and Dallas still has Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Brendan Haywood, and, of course, Nowitzki to go along with two of the top five players in the NBA.

Look at this deal from the Cleveland point of view. They can cut Damp immediately and save $13 million immediately, Butler becomes the main man for the Cavs and average 20 points or more per game for however long they want him, and they have a bonafide center-piece to start over with in Rodrigue Beaubois. Combine that with two first rounders and it would be hard not to take this deal if you know James wasn't going to stay anyway.

Also unlike the Knicks, Bulls, or Nets, the Dallas Mavericks have a team ready to compete for championships right now - if Nowitzki resigns. But that will be the $22 million question in the upcoming weeks: Will Dallas be able to prove to Nowitzki that they will land at least one top-tier free agent?

But if Dallas can't prove that, and Nowitzki does leave, the Mavericks are forced to completely start over. Without a true number one, go-to-guy, top-10 in the NBA talented player; Dallas will either A: be forced to "blow it up" as so many so-called Mavs' fans have suggested they do for the past few years - starting from scratch in hopes of being a 50-win team again in three or four years. Or B: try to still entice the likes of the Lebron's and Wades with the appetizer that they can do what Nowitzki could not; win an NBA title in Dallas.

Nonetheless this could easily be the most exciting off-season in Mavs' history. With the weapons Dallas has at it's disposal and the endless opportunities to upgrade this team, it should get fun around mid-June after the NBA Finals end and the rumor mill gets going.

We shall see.

In related news:

• I don't see Mark Cuban getting fined for his comments about Lebron James and the 2010 free-agency period. Cuban, like every other owner in the NBA, would want James to play for his team. I feel like he just basically outlined that in his interview with CNNMoney.com. No harm no foul. (UPDATE: Cuban Fined 100k)
  
• Way late on this but: Dirk Nowitzki was named to the All-NBA Second-Team a few weeks ago. It's the 10th straight season that Nowitzki has been named on an All-NBA team and he had been named to the first team in four of the previous five years before Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant (who led the NBA in scoring) took his place this season.
  

(More on these developments as the off-season progresses)