Dirk Nowitzki has fought hard trying keep the Dallas Mavericks in this series. Will anyone else? Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 31.5 points and 9.5 rebounds this series. Unfortunately for the Mavericks this hasn't led to a win. Look for things to change tonight at home as I expect a revitalized effort from this Mavericks team and a big game from Jason Terry. The Mavericks are 17-1 at home since the All-Star break (yes I know the one loss is Denver but Dallas was without Josh Howard and Jason Kidd for that one and still only lost by 2 points) including the playoffs; so if they are going to win a game in this series its going to be today. In order for the Mavericks to get a win these questions must be answered.
Three Key Questions:
Will Josh Howard Play?
Josh Howard has not practiced since the loss Tuesday in Denver, but has continually stated that he will go on Saturday "no matter what". How long he will last is another story as he said the same thing before game 2 and only lasted 6 minutes out there while going 0-3 from the field. The Mavericks need J-Ho in order to get a victory here and if he can't go or is ineffective this will be an uphill climb for Dallas all night long. If I were a betting man, I say he plays and the 3 days between games helps him to be somewhat effective if not his usual self.
Will the Mavs Defense Show Up?
Erick Dampier is a big component of this as is Josh Howard, Antoine Wright, and Jason Kidd. Dampier needs to step up and at least stop allowing Nene to have a career game every time these two teams play. If Damp is ineffective yet again I say the Mavs go with Ryan Hollins for the duration. Not just game 3, I'm talking starting game 4 also. If Erica Dampier can't cut it then Dallas needs to put in someone who will at least put up a fight. Josh Howard on Carmelo Anthony is a tricky situation with Howard's ankle injuries so I could see Antoine Wright on Carmelo when he is on the floor. The problem is that Rick Carlisle started Wright in Game 2 and assigned him to be Billups primary defender and put Jason Kidd on the much bigger Melo. This backfired both ways as Billups went for 18 (compared to 6 the last game when he was being guarded the majority of the time by Kidd) and Anthony went for 25 (compared to 23 the 1st game). Carmelo did go 8-21 from the floor so maybe there is something to that match up but if Billups gets hot like he did in the last series its lights out for the Mavericks. I don't see the Mavericks putting up all that much resistance here on the defensive end. The Nuggets are too athletic for Dallas and are getting into the paint at will, but the good news for the Mavs is that Denver is capable of falling in love with that 3-point shot. Bottom line: This is going to be a game in the 110's and Dallas is going to have to have a good amount of offensive firepower to win.
Will Dirk Nowitzki's Recent Off-Court Issues Effect His Play?
I'm sure many people have heard by now the story of Cristal Taylor, (AKA: Chrystal Ann Taylor, Crystal Ann Taylor, Debra Johnson, Shana Mancini, Krista Santiago, Crystal Ann Santiago, Cristal Westerhaus and Crista A. Westerhays) the ex-stripper who was picked up from Nowitzki's house by the FBI. This is new for Dirk and many Mavericks fans because no one has had to deal with something like this from the normally private Nowitzki. Mavs players and Dirk have been saying the right things all week that he is "extremely focused" and the basketball floor will be his "sanctuary" to get away from his problems and that is all well and good but does anyone really know how Dirk is going to respond? I don't know about you, but if I found out that a women I had been seeing exclusively for quite some time was wanted by the FBI, I might not only be freaked out that she was staying at my multi-million dollar house but also distraught that I just lost someone that I really cared about(Dirk had allegedly proposed to on New Years Eve). This also coincides with Dirk being ripped by the two idiots at TNT (Barkley, C-Webb) about letting an opponent know he can "check you", although I think Nowitzki couldn't care less what those 2 geniuses think of him. All-in-all this is going to be a new experience for everyone (players, media, fans, DIRK) involved. Dirk has been in tumultuous moments regarding things that have happened on the court, but never things that involved is personal life. What we do know is that Nowitzki is a professional, and I would expect him to have a big game tonight regardless of what is going on outside of the arena.
Even if Josh Howard cannot play or is ineffective, I could see the Mavericks taking this game at home tonight, simply because of how well they have played(with and without J-Ho) there the last 3 months. Expect a high scoring game and maybe even an overtime or two but also a Mavericks victory.
Mavs win. Series at 2-1 Denver.
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