Series Schedule:Game 1 - Sun May 3 Dallas at Denver 2:30 pm ABC
Game 2 - Tue May 5 Dallas at Denver 9:30 pm TNT
Game 3 - Sat May 9 Denver at Dallas 4:00 pm ESPN
Game 4 - Mon May 11 Denver at Dallas 8:30 pm TNT
Game 5 * Wed May 13 Dallas at Denver TBD TNT
Game 6 * Fri May 15 Denver at Dallas TBD ESPN
Game 7 * Sun May 17 Dallas at Denver TBD
Series ESPN.com "Experts'" Predictions:
J.A. Adande: Nuggets in 6
Tim Legler: Nuggets in 6
Henry Abbott: Nuggets in 6
Chris Broussard: Nuggets in 6
Chad Ford: Nuggets in 5
John Hollinger: Nuggets in 7
Jalen Rose: Nuggets in 6
Chris Sheriden: Nuggets in 5
David Thorpe: Nuggets in 6
(former Dallas Morning News writer) Marc Stein: Mavs in 6
The Mavericks were 0-4 against the Denver Nuggets in the regular season. Dallas lost 3 of the 4 by a combined 7 points. I don't see this as a big precursor to what is going to occur in the postseason because of injures and because quite simply these two teams have changed a lot from the regular season. Both teams better overall play the last two months culminated in both teams' dominating first round series'.
Both the Mavericks and the Nuggets are coming off of 4-1 series victories. Dallas allowed 90 points a game while scoring 96 for a +6 margin of victory for the series. Denver scored 108 points a game and only allowed 84 as they completely demolished New Orleans for a +24 margin of victory per game. Of course, this margin was raised exponentially by their 121-63 victory in game 4. But the stats don't lie, they dominated that series.
This series features two teams that are extremely explosive on the offensive side of the ball. The key to this series is that its going to come down to who can get stops. I don't expect these games to be in the 80's at the end of the game but you have to be able to rely on your defense in order to make runs and protect/gain the lead in the 4th quarter. This is specifically imperative for the Mavericks because of the tenacity they have shown on the defensive end of the basketball court thus far in the playoffs. If Carmelo Anythony, Chancey Billups, and J.R. Smith are able to score at will like they did against New Orleans, this is going to be a quick series in favor of the Nuggets. Those 3 players averaged 62 points per game combined in that series against the Hornets, and Chauncey Billups made an average of 3.8 out of 5.8 three point attempts per game during the series.
Key Match Ups Defensively:
Note: Mavs best defender Antoine Wright will get turns against each of these 3 players throughout the series.
C. Billups: This will be Jason Kidd's match up so they have to respect his outside shot enough to try and make sure he doesn't get many open looks. Billups doesn't get to the basket as much as previously in his career but that is still a dimension of his game that needs to be respected. He is excellent at pump fakes and ball fakes so the Mavs will have to be extremely disciplined on defense in order for him not to have a big series. Billups is not a quick point guard like Tony Parker so I expect Jason Kidd to be able to hang with him for most of the game, but Chancey will still be efficient. Edge: Push
Carmelo Anthony: This will be Josh Howard's priority and will be a key match up on both ends of the floor in this series. Anthony, like Howard, has battled injuries all season long which affected his shot; causing him to shoot at 44% for the season, which is the worst since his second year in the league. Melo has been driving to the basket more and seems to be feeling better as he is shooting 47% for the playoffs. J-Ho has a bum wrist and an ankle that might require surgery in the off season, so this will be a tough match up for him and I expect Antoine Wright to get matched up against him more as the series goes along. Edge: Nuggets
J.R. Smith: This guy is as wacky in real life as his shot selection is on the court. He is a true X-Factor because he can either help you immensely or hurt you incurably; there's not much in-between with this guy. Whether he is launching up three's from near half-court or not getting back on defense because of his over-the-top self promotion; he is going to be a problem for somebody. I expect Jason Terry to get the majority of the action against J.R. Smith simply because Nuggets coach George Karl will likely put him in as JET goes in. Terry can hang with J.R. Smith but sometimes it doesn't matter as anything he throws up goes in. Edge: Push
The Nuggets definitely have an advantage with Josh Howard hobbled. J-Ho wasn't asked to cover any type of offensive threat in the first round against the Spurs, and the guy he was guarding (Michael Finley) did have 19 points in the first game, but after that was shut down as he only averaged 8 points on 44% shooting. Finley is no Carmelo, who will likely have his way with Howard on defense. The Mavericks defense will struggle as a whole considering how great Josh was as a weak-side defender in the San Antonio series. Josh will now have to cover Melo exclusively and will not be able to roam the defensive end and make plays.
The Mavericks top three scorers for the first round series (Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry) only averaged 50 points combined for the series but were largely held in check by the Spurs defensive prowess. Denver doesn't have that same prowess and I expect all three to have huge series against this team. In the regular season, Dirk averaged 30 points and 11 rebounds in 4 games against the Nuggets. Josh Howard averaged only 20 minutes a game in 2 meetings vs the Nuggets this season so he only averaged nine points. Jason Terry averaged 19 points in 4 games against Denver this year, matching his season average.
This good news is Denver has to cover these players on defense:
Key Match Ups for the Offense:
Dirk Nowitzki vs Kenyon Martin: Dirk had his way all season with K-Mart but for some reason reports out of Denver state that they feel like he can continue to guard him 1 on 1. This would be an idiotic decision and a colossal failure that will change after Dirk goes off for 40 in game 1. Even if Denver decides to go with a smaller guy like Carmelo or a bigger guy like Nene; Dirk will either back Melo down into the post and show off some of his new post moves, or if Nene is on him he will put the ball on the floor and drive straight past him. The only answer is a double team which Dirk will likely quickly shoot over or would free up the other Mavericks scorers. Edge: Mavericks
Josh Howard vs Carmelo Anthony: Josh Howard had a good series on the offensive end against San Antonio. Even though as the series went on the Spurs began to apply more defensive pressure on him, Howard rarely faultered. This is an interesting matchup in that Melo has all of the tools to be an excellent defender; he just has not shown the effort yet. If he tries a lackidayzical type effort on J-Ho, he would likely regret it as he is a capable 20 points scorer. This is Melo's first time to the second round and he his still trying to prove he is in the same league as his buddies D-Wade and Lebron James who have both already been to the finals. I could see a renewed effort on the defensive end and a difficult series for Howard. Edge: Nuggets
Jason Terry vs Whomever: Jason Terry will have his way this series, plain and simple. JET was by all intents and purposes shut down in the first round of the playoffs. He only averaged 13 points on on 38% shooting, but did seem to break out of it in the close-out game of the series when he scored 19 points on 50% shooting. I suspect Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones to see time on Terry but I also conclude that it won't matter, he is due for a big game and a big series. Edge Mavericks
Dallas is going to have it's hands full in this series as the Nuggets are the type of super athletic team that has always given Dallas nightmares. J.R. Smith also likes to mix it up with different players from the Mavs and throw cheap shots, so they need to be able to keep their composure at all costs in order to have a shot in this series. I predict this series will be fun and entertaining with both teams being at each others throats by game 2. Unfortunately for Mavs fans, Denver will be too much to handle for a Dallas team that still needs to prove it can consistently win on the road. The Mavericks will win their games at home, however, and force a game 7.
Denver wins 4-3.
Players to watch:
- Chris Anderson has been a monster for Denver off the bench this season and in the playoffs. He has averaged nearly 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks in roughly 20 minutes per in the playoffs.
- Antoine Wright will have a much bigger role this series as he will be once again be called upon to be the Mavericks best perimeter defender.
- J.J. Barea will have a dimished role because of his size and the need to use Wright, but will still see some chances against Nuggets guard Anthony Carter.
- Brandon Bass will see a good amount of time at center for the Mavs at Nene is built more like a power forward.
- I can see Erick Dampier's minutes being limited unless he continues to play at the high level he showed against San Antonio.
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