The Dallas Mavericks Look to Avoid Getting Swept Tonight in Big-D at 8:30pm

Is a win tonight in Dallas a slam-dunk for the Denver Nuggets?

The Denver Nuggets have won 8 straight games against Dallas dating back to last season. Dallas has shown ineptitude in the fourth quarter throughout the series and a sweep looks imminent after the heartbreaking game 3 loss on Saturday. The good news, however, is that Dallas has never been swept in a 7 game series.

3 Keys to Avoiding a Sweep:

1. Inside Presence: The Mavericks attacked the basket in game 3 and that led to a winnable game at the end of the fourth quarter. Brandon Bass led the way with 16 free throws and the Mavericks shot 49 as a team. Because of the combined foul trouble on Denver's bigs (which can be attributed to getting to the basket) Dallas was also able to play with a smaller lineup featuring Bass at power forward and Dirk at center. This is the optimal Dallas scoring lineup, especially inside. They are not likely to get that many calls in game 4, but driving to the basket opens up the offense for everyone on the floor. Three point shots become less contested as defenders tend to collapse on the paint when perimeter players drive or when Dirk Nowitzki or Bass take it down low with their back to the basket. On the defensive end the Mavericks also made Denver work for the majority of the game to get easy baskets. Erick Dampier must play with a sense of enthusiasm that he has lacked the majority of the series.


2. Bench Play: The Mavericks bench also played better in game 3 as they outscored Denver's bench 35-18 for the second time in a row this series. Denver's 6th man J.R. Smith was limited to 10 points on 3 for 10 shooting which allowed Dallas to have a chance late. Jason Terry must step up in the fourth quarter like he has done all season in order for the Mavericks to avoid elimination. JJ Barea has been held down this series and likely won't contribute tonight either. Brandon Bass' strong play must also continue if Dallas wants a shot at a win.


3. Jason Kidd: Kidd's greatest strength this season has been the way in which he has played in close games in the 4th quarter. He has not shown this same characteristic thus far against the Nuggets and also hasn't shown a penchant for finding open players as he has only averaged 5.3 assists this series down more than 3 from the 8.7 he averaged throughout the course of the regular season. He has averaged more than 10 ppg and shot 48% for the series, and this needs to continue into the 4th quarter when it matters the most. This is the biggest key because in order for the Mavericks to win this game, Kidd must outplay Chauncey Billups in the 4th quarter.

I expect Dirk Nowitzki to have another huge game as no Denver defender can stop him anywhere on the basketbal floor. The last game will not faze the Mavericks and they will come out with an energy that Denver will lack. I expect a big lead in the first quarter but Denver will make it a close game late but late game heroics from the Jasons (Kidd,Terry) and maybe even a big shot from Dirk wins it for Dallas. Unfortunately for Dallas, this will not be the case Wednesday in Denver, but they live to fight another day and the Nuggets will get to celebrate their first playoff victory in 15 years on their home floor.

Dallas Wins. Down 3-1 in Series.