Scott Feldman is going to be the Ace of a rotation for the first time in his career this year for the Rangers. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)It looks as though the Rangers have a set rotation, roughly a week before opening day on April 5. Here is the top five along with some stats and a preview of how they may fare this season.
Who's In:
The Ace: Scott Feldman: Last Year's Stats: 31 starts. 17-8 record. 4.08 ERA. Spring 2010 Stats: Three starts. 2-1 record. 5.40 ERA.
Analysis: Even though he struggled at the end of the season, seeing his ERA jump from 3.62 to 4.08 while going 0-3 in his last three starts, Feldman pitched incredibly well last season. His 17 wins were the most by a Rangers' pitcher since Kenny Rogers won 18 in 2004, and he will be the first Rangers' homegrown ace since Rogers.
He has been largely unimpressive this spring. In his first full start (four innings) Feldman had some serious control issues, throwing only 33 of his 67 pitches for strikes and walking two batters. His first real start, according to manager Ron Washington, will come Sunday where his pitch limit will be in the 80-90 range. Feldman didn't get into the rotation until late April last season and had the best year of a Rangers' pitcher in quite some time. I see 15-17 wins again this season for Feldman and an under 4.00 ERA, especially for Texas to be a contender.
(Side Note: For some reason, the move to have Feldman the ace over Rich Harden is garnering national attention on the front page of ESPN.com. It's not that big of a shock to me, I guess when your manager does cocaine every decision is put under the microscope.)
Rich Harden: Last Year: 26 starts. 9-9. 4.09 ERA (With Cubs). Spring 2010: Five Starts. 1-3. 9.17 ERA.
Analysis: It's been ugly so far in spring training, so ugly that I think Texas had originally penciled him in as the number one starter. A 9.17 ERA and 15 walks in 17 innings haven't helped Harden. His last start went O.K. (five innings, three runs. five strikeouts but five walks) but Texas is going to need more from him if they look to make the playoffs this season for the first time since 1999.
The most worrisome aspect, in my opinion, is Harden's move from the National League to the AL. His ERA wasn't great for the Cubs (over four) and normally you can tack on a run to the ERA when moving to the American League. Not to mention the fact that Harden has missed many games due to injury over his seven-year career. Best case scenario: 12-15 wins and a 4.00 ERA. Worst: 5-8 wins, injuries, ERA over 5.00.
C.J. Wilson: Last Year: 0 starts. 5-6 (14 saves, 19 holds). 2.81 ERA. Spring 2010: Two starts. 0-1. 4.50 ERA.
Analysis: Rangers coaches feel Wilson has played himself into the rotation with a starter's mindset and confidence. His spring numbers have been solid if not unspectacular but his strike-to-pitch ration has been phenomenal as he's thrown 95 of his 129 pitches for strikes (73 percent). He's also allowed the least hits of any Rangers' projected starter with 10 in 14 innings. Overall a guy whose worked his way into the rotation and could be looking at great things this season, maybe even double-digit wins and a below 4.00 ERA. Durability likely will be a concern, though.
Colby Lewis: Last Year: N/A. Spring 2010: Two starts. 0-1. 7.15 ERA.
Analysis: After spending the last two season's in Japan (starting 55 games, going 26-17, with a 2.82 ERA) Lewis is coming back to the place he spent his first three seasons. While he didn't exactly light it up those three seasons and he hasn't exactly played well this spring, people inside the organization believe Lewis has figured it out. His control (two walks in 11 IP this spring) appears to be much better and while his strikeout total (12) has been a good sign. 10 wins his first year back in the majors would be a plus, but an under 4.50 ERA would be exceptional. Although I could see him out of the rotation with a younger player taking his place this season.
Matt Harrison: Last Year: 11 starts. 4-5. 6.11 ERA. Spring 2010: One start. 1-0. 2.00 ERA.
Analysis: The 24-year old showed flashes of brilliance last season, including a complete-game shutout of the Chicago White Sox May 8, and he's played well this spring. I expect more consistency in his second-year and for him to either hold onto the 5th spot or move up in the rotation this season.
Who's Out:
Brandon McCarthy: Last Year: 17 starts. 7-4. 4.62 ERA. Spring 2010: Four starts. 1-3. 8.03 ERA.
Analysis: McCarthy began last season in the rotation but injuries derailed his season yet again. He also didn't pitch well this spring as he allowed 20 hits in 12 innings. He would likely be the first call-up if a starter is injured or struggling. Starts season at Triple-A Oklahoma.
Derek Holland: Last Year: 21 starts. 8-13. 6.12 ERA. Spring 2010: Two starts. 0-2. 5.68 ERA.
Analysis: Youngster will have plenty of chances to play his way back up to the majors. At 23, he still has plenty of room to grow and arguably has the best pure stuff of any Rangers' pitcher. Some time in minors will do him well. Starts season at Triple-A Oklahoma.
Tommy Hunter: Last Year: 19 starts. 9-6. 4.10 ERA. Spring 2010: One start. 0-1. 1.80 ERA.
Analysis: Play didn't force him out of starting rotation, injuries did. Could easily be a call-up this season. Starts season on D.L. then likely Triple-A.
Neftali Feliz: Last Year: zero starts. 1-0. (two saves, nine holds). 1.74 ERA. 11.32 K per 9 innings (best on team). Spring 2010: One start. 0-1. 13.50 ERA.
Analysis: While Feliz did have 10 strike-outs in his eight spring training innings pitched, he's been largely ineffective - especially the second time through the order - which is a sure sign he's staying in the bullpen. Hopefully Texas doesn't give up on him as a one-day ace, but the 21-year old certainly has room to grow and will do so in the bullpen this season. Starts season in the pen, then who knows.
The Verdict:
For the first time in a long time the Rangers have some quality depth at the starting positions. Even a guy gets injured or is ineffective in the top-5, Texas has three or four other pitchers who can take that spot and perform. It's an exciting time to be a fan of the Texas Rangers.
Look for more previews in the next week leading up to opening day.
(Next up: The Bullpen)
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