Dirk Nowitzki and Carmelo Anythony go head-to-head tonight with the season tiebreaker on the line. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay, AP Photo/Tim Sharp)With nine games left in the regular season for the Dallas Mavericks (48-25) and eight for the Denver Nuggets (48-26), playoff positioning is beginning to take shape.
There is no doubt that this is the biggest game so far this season for both teams with the Mavs up by only a half-game over the Nuggets and the season-series tied at 1-1. The team that wins this game will hold the tiebreaker which puts them in a much better position to secure a higher seed - especially if the Mavs win as they will hold a one-and-a-half game lead (two in the loss-column) with only seven games left for Denver.
Both teams have struggled recently. Dallas has lost four of seven games after their 13-game winning streak and Denver's won only three of their past eight games, having lost four of their past five contests overall.
The Season Series
Dallas won the first game between the two teams, in Denver, 104-96 on Dec. 27. Chauncey Billups did not play in that game due to a strained left groin and the Mavericks top two scorers were Drew Gooden and Josh Howard, both no longer with the team. Needless to say, tonight will be a whole different ballgame.
The Nuggets won the second match-up, also in Denver, blowing out the Mavericks 127-91 going into the All-Star Break. Dallas was missing two starters in Erick Dampier and Shawn Marion, but the 36-point loss proved the Mavs needed a roster make-over. I believe that was the last domino to fall leading to the trade with the Washington Wizards.
The Stats
Denver is second in the NBA in points scored per game (107.1) and feature the league's third best scorer in Carmelo Anthony (28.9 per game). Denver is in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points allowed, tied for 21st at 102.5, but do force opponents into 15.2 turnovers a game (sixth in NBA) and opponents shoot 45.7 percent against them - better than the 45.8 percent Dallas allows. The Mavericks are 12th in points per game (101.6) and 15th in points allowed (99.7).
The biggest thing, statistically, in the Mavericks favor is that Denver is not a very good road team. The Nuggets have lost four of their last five on the road and are only 18-20 away from home this season, worst among Western Conference playoff teams. Dallas is 25-11 at home this season and have won 10 of the last 12 games at American Airlines Center.
Prediction
They've been a Jekyll and Hyde team recently and in order to get back on track, the Dallas Mavericks need to put an emphasis on the fundamentals tonight against Denver. Pushing the tempo, playing hard defensively, and limiting turnovers are imperative to a Mavs win. This is a game Dallas has to show up and play hard for a full 48 minutes, no exceptions.
It's going to be a close game, both teams know the implications and will come ready to play. I could see Dallas winning this game, though. It's at home, where the Mavs have played well, and I can see the crowd energizing Dallas out of any lack of focus.
Dallas Wins 110-103
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